Bullish Cross Live


1. The Bullish Cross SPY Model Portfolio
1. Short SPY @ $155.52 x 15,000 shares
Cash: $0.00
Enter Portfolio Here

2. The Bullish Cross Alpha Model Portfolio
1. Long GLD @ $161.51 x 835 shares
2. Short IWM @ $102.14 x 4,500 shares
3. Short SPY @ $161.50 x 7,500 shares
4. Long AAPL @ $470.00 x 350 shares
5. Long UNG @ $19.54 x 5,000 shares
6. Short GOOG @ $890.60 x 180 shares
7. Short QQQ @ $85.03 x 5,000 shares
Cash: $0.00
Enter Portfolio Here

3. The Bullish Cross Trading Portfolio
1. Long Apple April 19, 2014 $530 - $540 Spread @ $4.60 x 500 contracts
2. Long Apple January 2015 $655 - $705 Spread @ $4.97 x 200 contracts
3. Long Apple May 2, 2014 $540 - $550 Call-Spread @ $4.20 x 500 contracts
Cash: $853,960.00
Enter Portfolio Here
THE LIVE BLOG 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM

9:55 AM -- at this point, the SPY has made a small breach above the upper trend-line which really increases the likelihood that we're getting a breakout here. It could be a false breakout, but that is a less likely scenario. That being said, it's still not in a safe zone at this point. The SPY is at fresh all-time intraday highs now, but needs to break away from that $188.20 key resistance level. Also notice that the SPY is getting a little overbought or at least very close to overbought territory. So it's kind of a hard place to be buying the breakout. We're going to watch for now:

As for Apple, it would be nice to see some follow through today on yesterday's strong momentum at the end of the session. Apple really needs to set apart from the $540 level. Once it breaks away from this $540 zone, it's a lot more likely to go on a pre-earnings run which is exactly what we want to see here.

3:33 PM -- the SPY is making a push for the $189.00 level which does suggest that the breakout is in full effect now. As we have explained over the past few months, we would considering a larger short trade once the SPY pushes toward the $200 level as we do feel that this psychological level could mark a major top in the market. So that's what we're going to be waiting for at this point:

18 responses to “Bullish Cross Live

  1. Andy,
    I am interested in your thoughts on TSLA. Any trades or set ups after the recent sell off?

    • My thoughts on TSLA are as follows. A few days ago it reached right around $200 a share. My main concern at that level is that if TSLA lost the $200 level, then it would probably test the 200-day moving. I’m not even sure that it’s even in the clear yet. A friend of mine bought some calls right down near the $200 level and I was tempted to do so as well. But decided to wait for what I would consider to be extremely optimal circumstance. If TSLA came down to the 200-day, it would have been an extraordinary buying opportunity.

      So that’s how I feel about it. Probably should have done something like buy half of a long-term position in TSLA on Monday. That would have been a good idea. Then if it tested the 200-day, I would buy a more aggressive near-term position which then I would roll into a long-term position on the first major bounce. That would have been a good way to play it.

  2. Today is my last day on BC. It’s been a very educational rollercoaster ride, many thanks to all who shared & participated and good luck with future endeavors.

  3. Andy, for educational purposes, does Aapl’s action today look bullish today to you, or is this a failure to clearly break out about to get clobbered by the usual weekly option action?

    • It looks strong for now. I would like to see Apple make some separation from the $540 level. Like a move up above $545 would be nice.

  4. Andy… Any open ended aapl call you suggest?
    Both short and long term

  5. I had to hold the Apple 400 January 2015 calls for tax purposes. I am looking for any advice on when to sell, any ideas?

    • For what’s it worth, I hold some Apple Jan 15 $500 calls that I bought after the Jan 14 earnings down-draft. I have been selling the Jan 15 $550 calls against them when I believe Apple is over-bought, and I buy them back when Apple appears to be over-sold. Currently, only hold the long calls, and plan to sell the $550’s again around April earnings time. I have been able to reduce my cost basis to around $45, so I can create a Jan 15 500/550 spread at a cost of $8 at current prices. I figure if I ever get it wrong, and Apple starts to run, I will at least have a spread that will yield 500-600%. A breakeven at $508 for the spread seems to be pretty reasonable as well. Not sure if this would make sense for you, but it has been working for me so far.

    • I would sell on earnings day …April 23. the IV will be higher by then and theres a great chance that it will sell off after earnings. Even if it gaps up it will probably still sell off. The volatility will be sucked out of the options on April 24, and May and June ore historically very bearish for AAPL…could be bearish for whole market this year. If there are no product intros this summer…I bet there will be a very good buying opportunity in July.

  6. I would consider selling monthly calls against the Jan position. If you get called out you close the position. If you dont write it again.

  7. Thanks everyone very helpful.


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