Bullish Cross Live


1. The Bullish Cross Alpha Model Portfolio
1. Long GLD @ $161.51 x 835 shares
2. Short IWM @ $102.14 x 4,500 shares
3. Short SPY @ $161.50 x 7,500 shares
4. Long AAPL @ $67.14 x 2450 shares
5. Long UNG @ $19.54 x 5,000 shares
6. Short GOOG @ $445.30 x 360 shares
7. Short QQQ @ $85.03 x 5,000 shares
Cash: $0.00
Enter Portfolio Here

2. The Bullish Cross Trading Portfolio
1. Apple January 2016 $130 - $140 Call Spread @ $3.126 x 4,850 Contracts [$1,516,000 allocation 26.9%]
2. AAPL September $125 Calls @ $3.05 x 1,700 Contracts [$518,500 allocation 9.2%]
3. AAPL November $125 Calls @ $4.00 x 6,250 Contracts [$2,500,000 allocation 41.3%]
Cash: $1,520,640 [25.0%]
Cost Basis: $6,055,140
Market Value: N/A
Gain/Loss: N/A
Overall Portfolio Return: $5,135,490.00 (513.6%)
Enter Portfolio Here

3. The Bullish Cross X-Portfolio
Cash: $10,000.00
Enter Portfolio Here

1. The Bullish Cross Ultra-LT SPY Model Portfolio
1. Short SPY @ $155.52 x 15,000 shares
Cash: $0.00
Enter Portfolio Here

About the Model Portfolios
The three portfolios listed above comprise of the BC Actively Traded model portfolios. The former SPY Model Portfolio is now an Ultra-LT model portfolio that will follow the business cycle with a multiyear time-horizon. The BC Alpha Model is our basic long-short model portfolio. The BC Trading Portfolio is our actively traded options portfolio. The Bullish Cross X-Portfolio seeks to make very selective high probability trades with the aim of returning at least a full 100% portfolio return on each trade. Given the speculative nature of the portfolio, it is meant to be traded with the highly speculative portion of one's portfolio.
THE LIVE BLOG 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM

1:45 PM -- if Apple ends up closing down here near $115 a share, today will mark the fifth session Apple has closed at or below a 30-RSI. Historically speaking, that would make this correction tied for fourth in terms of the amount of time Apple has spent below a 30-RSI. In the June 2013 correction, Apple bottomed out at day #5. In November 2012, it bottomed at session #8 (equivalent of next Wednesday) and after that you would need to go back to January 2008 (12 days) and the financial crisis (24-days) to see more sessions. See below:

Now here's what I suspect is going to happen next week. I think we may see a break to the downside. Apple has been forming a pretty extended descending triangle/bear flag. The consolidation is certainly bearish. After that, the stock will likely bottom out ahead of a rally. The timing makes sense considering we're going into the month of September which is the iPhone release month. Apple does tend to rally going into the iPhone event and we'll publish some analysis on this later. But overall, I do think if we get a breakdown here to perhaps fill the $108 gap, Apple is probably going to be sitting near a 20-RSI which will pave the way for a significant rally.

6 responses to “Bullish Cross Live

  1. Andy if it’s probable apple is going to see another leg down, why not close the Nov 125s and redeploy into new calls at the lower entry?

    • Andy M. Zaky

      It’s not a tradable forecast. It’s a guess. What we do know is that the evidence suggests Apple can bottom at any single minute and then go on a huge double-digit percentage run.

      We also already have a strategy in place in the event Apple does take another leg down.

  2. You would have thought the buyback would have kicked in.
    The technical weakness makes me think of that $505-$595 run and touch 200 day for another leg down.

  3. Anyone ever take into account rsi 5 and 7

  4. zero shares traded hands today. everyone has what they want